Written by
Shaun Curtis
on 03 Oct 2019
and updated on
01 Dec 2025
Categorised in
Tips and Advice
Energy costs have been a worry for many households in recent years. Prices rose sharply around 2022 and 2023, but this year things have eased. For example, the UK's crude oil price index in August 2025 was 19% lower than at the same time last year, and household liquid fuel prices in Q2 were 16% lower than in Q1. Overall, prices are now well below the peaks of 2022 and much closer to the levels we were used to before the pandemic.
Knowing today's price is useful - but most people also want to know when prices might change or when the best time to buy heating oil is.
Tracking prices is simple with our heating oil price charts. Predicting future changes is harder, but there are some helpful signs and trends that can guide us.
If we go back to the very start of the heating oil supply chain, Kerosene28 (heating oil) is produced from crude oil. So changes in crude oil prices often influence the cost of heating oil. When crude prices move, heating oil usually follows.
However, the link isn't instant or perfectly matched. It can take a few days for heating oil prices to adjust after crude oil rises or falls.
In some cases- especially during short-term spikes or dips- crude oil may fall while heating oil prices stay the same or even increase.
Even so, crude oil remains one of the strongest indicators of where Kerosene prices are likely to head next.
Weather conditions can affect heating oil prices in more ways than just colder temperatures increasing demand. Disruptions caused by:
Can all impact deliveries to suppliers and households, which may result in higher prices.
If tankers can't reach ports or road conditions slow distribution, supply can become limited- and prices may rise as a result.
The risk of running out of oil is also higher in winter when usage increases and deliveries are more likely to be delayed.
A smart way to avoid these issues is to order before the winter rush, when prices are often lower, or to place smaller, more frequent top-up orders to keep your tank comfortably stocked.
A major reason heating oil prices rise in colder months is simply higher demand.
When temperatures drop:
This increased demand puts pressure on supply, which can lead to price increases.
You can reduce the impact by:
Or you can reduce the hassle entirely with Connected - automatic ordering when you need it, at our best price, all rolled into one monthly payment.
OPEC are one of the biggest drivers of changes in crude oil prices (which we know impacts heating oil). The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decides whether to increase or decrease oil production depending on demand. If OPEC decides to decrease oil production, heating oil prices usually rise, and vice-versa.
There can be political drivers behind these decisions, but while you may not be able to control this, you can stay ahead and informed by keeping track of OPEC meetings before they happen.
The geopolitical landscape in major oil-producing regions has a significant impact on global oil prices. Political tensions, conflict, or instability can create uncertainty in the market, which often pushes crude prices higher.
If sanctions or transport disruptions occur- especially in or around conflict zones- moving oil becomes more difficult. This reduces supply and can drive prices up even further, creating a cycle that's hard to break.
While these global events are outside any individual's control, staying informed can still help. Keeping up with major news stories and checking heating oil prices regularly gives you the best chance of ordering at a favourable time and securing a good deal.
Government changes can influence home-heating costs. In 2025, heating oil continues to fall under existing reduced-rate VAT rules, but changes to VAT on other home-heating fuels may still affect how fairly oil-heated homes are treated.
Even without a VAT change, other taxes impact prices:
Although fuel duty remains frozen for 2025/26:
In the UK, some heating oil is imported, which can add extra costs during delivery and distribution. Especially in areas where depots are far from major oil terminals.
These higher transport costs can increase the final price for consumers.
To help keep costs down, we work with trusted suppliers across the UK and group customer orders each day, allowing us to:
Refining costs can also influence heating oil prices. If refineries need to upgrade equipment to meet new regulations, or if operational expenses like wages increase, these added costs are often reflected in the final price consumers pay.
A significant share of the UK's heating oil is imported, so exchange rates directly influence pricing. When the value of the pound falls, imported oil becomes more expensive; when it strengthens, costs can ease and benefit consumers.
These factors often interact. Colder weather increases demand as households use more fuel and top up their tanks, which can push prices higher.
Crude oil fluctuations can have a similar effect, as price uncertainty encourages earlier or larger orders.
By quoting and ordering with BoilerJuice, you can be confident you're getting our best available price. With a network of over 200 local and national suppliers, we work to secure compeitive deals wherever you live.
